NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2015


NFL Picks (2015): 6-4 (-$410)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Minnesota Vikings (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-2)
Line: Cowboys by 1.5.

Saturday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Last week was a disaster. The Ravens-Eagles pick was terrible, while the Packers somehow failed to cover despite being up 19-9 late in the third quarter. I swear Landry Jones is going to tell his grandkids one day that he engineered two touchdown drives in the preseason to screw me over out of $330.

The Vikings seem like the right side here. Mike Zimmer is a perfect 7-0 in the preseason, so I’ll take him with the points. It worries me that Jason Garrett is 3-1 in Week 3, but that only limits this to two units.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Mike Zimmer is 7-0 in preseason games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 1-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Jason Garrett is 7-12 in preseason games.
  • Jason Garrett is 3-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Cowboys 23
    Vikings +1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200






    Chicago Bears (2-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
    Line: Bengals by 4.

    Saturday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    If the Bengals weren’t embarrassed on national TV, this would be a larger play. However, I still like the Bears for a unit. John Fox has proven that he really cares about the preseason, owning a 5-1 record the past couple of seasons. Martvin Lewis, on the other hand, has just a 3-9 record in Week 3.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • John Fox is 30-24 in preseason games.
  • John Fox is 8-5 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Marvin Lewis is 26-25 in preseason games.
  • Marvin Lewis is 3-9 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Bears 23, Bengals 21
    Bears +4 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110







    Seattle Seahawks (0-2) at San Diego Chargers (2-0)
    Line: Seahawks by 1.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    It’s difficult to believe that the Seahawks are 0-2 in the preseason, given how much Pete Carroll preaches competition. Carroll may want to get his team into the win column here, and he should be able to do so versus Mike McCoy, who has a mediocre exhibition record.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Pete Carroll is 13-9 in preseason games.
  • Pete Carroll is 3-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike McCoy is 5-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCoy is 1-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Seahawks 26, Chargers 19
    Seahawks -1 (2 Units) — Push; $0







    Houston Texans (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)
    Line: Saints by 3.5.

    Sunday, 4:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I’m not overly happy about going against Bill O’Brien because he seems to care about the preseason, but it’s hard for me to pass up on Sean Payton, who is 8-1 in Week 3. That’s partly because Drew Brees has played more than half of the game, and in case you haven’t noticed, Brees is pretty good.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Bill O’Brien is 1-0 in preseason games.
  • Bill O’Brien is 3-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Sean Payton is 8-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 21-19 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Texans 21
    Saints -3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110








    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    2024 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 21


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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