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NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 4, 2011


NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)

NFL Picks (2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.


Detroit Lions (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-2)
Line: Lions by 1.
Thursday, 6:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This is my August NFL Pick of the Month, even though the game is on Sept. 1. Whatever. I'm making this selection on Aug. 30, so it should still be fine.

Jim Schwartz loves winning in the preseason. He's 9-2 in three seasons with the Lions. Chan Gailey, on the other hand, doesn't really care unless it's Week 3. In non-Week 3 exhibition contests, he's 1-4, with his sole win coming against the Colts, who don't give a damn about the preseason either.

We're laying only one point here, so all the Lions have to do is win.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Jim Schwartz is 9-2 in preseason games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 3-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Chan Gailey is 1-4 in non-Week 3 preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bills 10
    Lions -1 (6 Units - August NFL Pick of the Month) -- Correct; +$600
    Lions 16, Bills 6




    Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
    Line: Bengals by 4.
    Thursday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    The Colts don't care about winning preseason games; they haven't won a Preseason Week 4 contest since 2003. The only reason this isn't a higher-unit play is because Indianapolis may put extra effort into figuring out whom its Week 1 quarterback will be if Peyton Manning can't go.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Marvin Lewis is 7-1 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Jim Schwartz is 1-10 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Colts 17
    Bengals -4 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Colts 17, Bengals 13





    Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
    Line: Packers by 3.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Todd Haley thinks preseason games are beneath him, but he's 0-3, so he may want to eke out a win. He did so last year against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 contests. He won't prepare for the Chiefs.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Mike McCarthy is 0-5 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 13, Packers 10
    Chiefs +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Packers 20, Chiefs 19




    Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3.
    Thursday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I know the Jets are coming off two days rest. That's why I'm not going to make a big wager on this. But the fact remains that Andy Reid doesn't give a damn about Preseason Week 4, so they won't be prepared. I like getting the points with New York.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Andy Reid is 20-31 in preseason games.
  • Andy Reid is 2-10 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Rex Ryan is 6-5 in preseason games.
  • Rex Ryan is 2-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Eagles 16
    Jets +3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Eagles 24, Jets 14


    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)
    Line: Panthers by 2.5.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Why are the Steelers an underdog? Mike Tomlin has never lost a Preseason Week 4 game. The only reason this isn't a huge wager is because I'm not sure how Ron Rivera will handle this game. Considering he's 1-2 in the preseason thus far, we can assume that he won't really prepare for Pittsburgh.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Mike Tomlin is 15-5 in preseason games.
  • Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Preseason Week 4 games.
  • Ron Rivera is 1-2 in preseason games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Panthers 13
    Steelers +2.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Steelers 33, Panthers 17


    Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
    Line: Saints by 3.
    Thursday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Munchak is a first-year head coach, so he's a bit of an unknown. However, he's 2-1 in the preseason thus far, with the sole loss coming to the Rams, who love winning exhibition games.

    What we do know is that Sean Payton doesn't care about Preseason Week 4 (1-4). The Saints are also coming off three days rest after a win, so I can't see them putting forth any effort against Tennessee.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Munchak is 2-1 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 1-4 in Preseason Week 4 games.


    Preseason Week 4 NFL Pick: Titans 13, Saints 7
    Titans +3 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Titans 32, Saints 9


    Leave a comment

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    Newbie2011 05-25-2012 12:45 am xxx.xxx.xxx9.39 (total posts: 1)
    0     0

    Of course my big bet loses!! -2units on Mariners. With small bets hitting, I'm -1.2 units. I'll try to do some research tomorrow. Lousy news before getting to Vegas!
    Awesome-O 05-25-2012 12:30 am xxx.xxx.xxx5.75 (total posts: 112)
    0     0

    and the losing days continue!

    now is the busy time at work...super busy until july. I'll just post leans and probably follow the majority.

    Dbacks ML vs. Brewers (-125)
    Yankees ML vs. Oakland (-140)
    Dodgers -1.5 vs. Astros depending on juice
    Awesome-O 05-24-2012 11:10 pm xxx.xxx.xxx5.75 (total posts: 112)
    0     0

    Yeah that was f..cked

    I need the Mariners to come through to stop my losing streak.
    lcchogan 05-24-2012 10:52 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.181 (total posts: 6)
    0     0

    @Guru

    Great call on Cards/Phi over!

    I also took Heat and over the dreaded double dip was sweet!

    Welcome back!
    Hardtimes 05-24-2012 09:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.24 (total posts: 98)
    0     0

    @Guru:

    Good call on the Phillies Over!

    Now just hoping my 3-team parlays hit...(Don't ask - "experimenting")
    Newbie2011 05-24-2012 09:48 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.249 (total posts: 136)
    0     0

    Sorry Awesome. Braves are unbalanced without Chipper.
    Newbie2011 05-24-2012 09:35 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.249 (total posts: 136)
    1     1

    Congrats on the over in cardinals game Guru!! It won in the 3rd inning!!!!

    And welcome back!
    Awesome-O 05-24-2012 06:29 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.112 (total posts: 32)
    2     1

    OK I've lost with the Braves the past 2 nights but i'll stick with em.

    Braves
    Giants
    Seattle

    all dogs!
    theguru66 05-24-2012 06:26 pm xxx.xxx.xxx8.45 (total posts: 486)
    2     1

    Sorry for the hiatus but I was away for a few days with the Fam. Not much tonight but I do like some things so let's get right to it...

    7:10, Mets host the Fathers and the Padres just got swept in St. Louis. Now they travel even further east and I know the Mets aren't world beaters but they do like to play against lefty starters. I would be careful of the total as the Mets are 14-2 over against southpaws. I am going to avod the total and just play the Mets on the money line to send the Padres to their 4th straight road loss.

    7:10, I know this goes against one of my golden rules of baseball wagering but I just think it's really difficult to sweep a 4 game set against anybody and I don't see the Reds doing it to the Braves tonight in Cincy. Delgado and the Braves should finally get over the hump vs. Homer Bailey. He gives up a ton of runs and I think the Reds will relax a little in this game. Braves win 7-3.

    8:00, I'm going to avoid the dreaded double pick with the Heat and the over tonight but I do like that. I'm going to concentrate on just one of the picks and I'll go with the OVER in this game. Desperate times call for desperate measures and the Pacers are desperate. They will do all they can to pound the ball inside which means a lot of free throws. The Pacers just can't stop the Heat from scoring and I see both of these teams up near 100 if not over. I like 106-101 Heat but will just stick with the over.

    8:15, Blanton and the Phills travel to St. Louis to battle the Cards and I immediately thought over in this game. Then I saw that the Cards are 15-5 over at home and a perfect 6-0 over when favored between 125 and 140. If Westbrook was pitching to his under 3 ERA and that was expected then why is this line 8 1/2? I see lots of homers and lots of fireworks. Might of taken this if it was 10. Over.

    Thursday's Recap:

    Mets -130
    Braves pk'em
    Heat/Pacers over 180 1/2
    Phillies/Cardinals over 8 1/2

    Good Luck everyone!
    Newbie2011 05-24-2012 06:18 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.142 (total posts: 1)
    1     1

    I don't think there will be any new write ups. I'm playing mariners, reds, heat under 182 (small), and heat (small).

    Good luck everyone and I hope we all recover today!
    Awesome-O 05-24-2012 05:47 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.112 (total posts: 32)
    1     1

    Definitely like the Giants...I might be biased as I live in the bay area, but I'll put a unit or 1.5 on em.

    I also really like BH picks freebie of the under 8 in the Mets game. Padres dont score and the Mets I think are a bit cold. 4-3 final score maybe
    Newbie2011 05-24-2012 04:59 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.154 (total posts: 2)
    1     1

    @Awesome: I read that Posey is in the line up today. How do you like your Giants now? Enough for a small play?
    Reid14 05-24-2012 04:53 pm xxx.xxx.xxx7.82 (total posts: 60)
    1     1

    BHPICKS

    FREE PICK:

    PADRES/METS UNDER 8

    To read the analysis for this pick go to:
    www.BHPicks.com/freepicks.html

    PREMIUM PICKS:

    HEAT/PACERS
    TWO PICKS SPREAD & OU

    To purchase these picks go to:
    www.BHPicks.com/signup.html

    GUARANTEED PICK:

    PADRES/METS ML

    To purchase this pick go to:
    www.BHPicks.com/guaranteedpicks.html
    Newbie2011 05-24-2012 04:28 pm xxx.xxx.xxx.154 (total posts: 2)
    2     1

    From what I read, some folks already have the Braves line up and Chipper isn't playing today because of his calf injury. I can't verify that because I don't know where to look!

    For tonight, I have Seattle Mariners and Cincinnati Reds as the plays. And Pacers +2.5 and under as the NBA plays (I'm not confident with the Pacers though).

    For small plays, I'm leaning Padres and Cardinals (maybe parley them since cardinals juice is high).

    Still have time to think about it...tic-toc! Anyone have updates?

    I'm not going to have time or the phone battery to research until Monday, so I hope to win big tonight. Almost in the black (thank you Indians!)
    Awesome-O 05-24-2012 11:53 am xxx.xxx.xxx.112 (total posts: 32)
    1     1

    OK good...Seattle is an agreement then. I honestly have zero time at work now to research now. So i'll just be checking the thread before gametime to see what to bet.

    Have an awesome time in Vegas Newbie!


    2012 Fantasy Football Rankings - May 25


    2013 NFL Mock Draft - May 22


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    2012 NBA Mock Draft - May 19


    2013 NBA Mock Draft - May 7




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2011): 0-1 (-$100)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2011): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2011): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2011): 1-0 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2011): +$405

    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)

    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 1,746-1,575-101, 52.6% (+$12,665)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 566-495-29 (53.4%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 239-204-7 (54.0%)
    Career Over-Under: 1278-1278-39 (50.0%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-14-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 22-15 (59.5%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-7 (L3)
    Bears: 8-7 (W1)
    Bucs: 5-11 (W2)
    49ers: 8-9 (W2)
    Eagles: 9-7 (W1)
    Lions: 10-6 (L3)
    Falcons: 11-6 (W2)
    Cardinals: 6-8 (L1)
    Giants: 12-7 (L1)
    Packers: 9-8 (W1)
    Panthers: 5-10 (L1)
    Rams: 5-10 (L2)
    Redskins: 6-9 (W3)
    Vikings: 9-6 (W5)
    Saints: 7-11 (W1)
    Seahawks: 7-7 (L1)
    Bills: 8-6 (W1)
    Bengals: 6-9 (W1)
    Colts: 4-12 (L2)
    Broncos: 11-6 (L1)
    Dolphins: 10-6 (W3)
    Browns: 9-6 (L1)
    Jaguars: 8-7 (L1)
    Chargers: 7-9 (W1)
    Jets: 7-9 (W2)
    Ravens: 10-7 (W1)
    Texans: 8-10 (L1)
    Chiefs: 9-7 (W1)
    Patriots: 9-9 (L1)
    Steelers: 4-13 (W1)
    Titans: 5-10 (L1)
    Raiders: 10-5 (W1)
    Divisional: 48-43
    2x Game Edge: 21-22
    2x Psych Edge: 29-23
    2x Vegas Edge: 49-55
    2x Trend Edge: 20-24
    Double Edge: 11-6
    Triple Edge: 1-0
    Quad Edge: 0-0

    2003 Preeason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preeason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preeason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preeason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preeason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preeason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preeason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preeason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Season:
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