NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2014



NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 3-5 (-$270)

NFL Picks (2014): 2-2 (+$80)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Chicago Bears (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Line: Seahawks by 7.

Friday, 10:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Last week was pretty tough. I don't know why Rex Ryan and Joe Philbin suddenly decided that they care about preseason games, and I have no idea what Jim Harbaugh was doing during the week, but he was not preparing for the Broncos. I'm not discouraged though because the other teams I was considering (Seahawks, Packers) won, so maybe it was just bad luck.

I like Seattle, but I wish the number were smaller. Pete Carroll is all about competition, so he wants to win these preseason games. Marc Trestman doesn't have a bad record himself, but he has yet to face an insane coach like Carroll in August.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Marc Trestman is 4-2 in preseason games.
  • Marc Trestman is 1-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Pete Carroll is 12-6 in preseason games.
  • Pete Carroll is 2-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Seahawks 34, Bears 17
    Seahawks -7 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100








    Dallas Cowboys (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)
    Line: Dolphins by 3.5.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I love getting the extra half point here. Last week aside, Joe Philbin has shown no interest in winning preseason games. Jason Garrett, on the other hand, is a perfect 3-0 in Week 3 contests.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • Jason Garrett is 7-8 in preseason games.
  • Jason Garrett is 3-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Joe Philbin is 3-8 in preseason games.
  • Joe Philbin is 0-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Cowboys 31, Dolphins 24
    Cowboys +3.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    New Orleans Saints (2-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
    Line: Colts by 2.5.

    Saturday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Like Jason Garrett, Sean Payton believes in winning this third preseason game; he's a near-perfect 7-1 in these contests. I like getting points with him here, though I'll admit that I wish the Colts were coming off a win instead of that ridiculous loss in which they blew a 26-0 fourth-quarter lead.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Sean Payton is 20-16 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 7-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Chuck Pagano is 4-6 in preseason games.
  • Chuck Pagano is 1-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 28, Colts 20
    Saints +2.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200







    San Diego Chargers (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1)
    Line: 49ers by 6.

    Sunday, 4:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    I don't know why Jim Harbaugh spent zero time preparing for the Broncos last week, but he almost has to come out with a statement here to silence all of the doubters, right? I'll give him one more shot.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Mike McCoy is 2-4 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCoy is 1-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Jim Harbaugh is 8-6 in preseason games (7-3 excluding Week 1).
  • Jim Harbaugh is 2-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: 49ers 33, Chargers 20
    49ers -6 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100





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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 5-5 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 3-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 5-5 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 8-2 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 4-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 4-6 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 7-3 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 3-7 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 7-3 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 4-6 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 4-6 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 3-6 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 3-7 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 3-6 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 5-5 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 4-5 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-8 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 2-8 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 6-4 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 4-5 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 4-6 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 3-7 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 4-6 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 5-5 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 2-8 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-8 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 16-21 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 9-13 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 27-25 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 14-11 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-20 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 13-10 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-2 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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