WalterFootball.com: NFL Picks Against the Spread

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2011): 11-4 (+$1,340)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2011): 5-9-2 (-$575)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2011): 6-8-2 (-$1,030)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2011): 10-5-1 (+$610)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2011): 7-9 (-$970)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2011): 9-4 (-$270)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2011): 5-7-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2011): 4-8-1 (-$820)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2011): 3-10 (-$1,145)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2011): 7-7 (+$695)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2011): 9-7 (+$490)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2011): 6-7-1 (-$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2011): 7-9 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2011): 11-5 (+$1,000)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2011): 7-7-2 (-$220)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2011): 9-6-1 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2011): 7-9 (-$550)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2011): 7-8-1 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2011): 3-1 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2011): 2-2 (-$150)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2011): 2-0 (+$500)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2011): 0-1 (-$100)

NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Washington Redskins (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 2.
Thursday, 7:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Chan Gailey doesn't care about Week 1 of the preseason. His team has scored 20 points in two contests, including a 42-17 blowout loss to the Redskins in 2010. Washington will want Robert Griffin to gain some confidence, so Mike Shanahan may play him more than Gailey will Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Mike Shanahan is 46-22 in preseason games.

Mike Shanahan is 12-5 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Chan Gailey is 3-5 in preseason games.

Chan Gailey is 0-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Bills 10
Redskins -2 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 1.
Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

Mike Tomlin is one of the most intense coaches in football. He really wants to win these preseason games. Andy Reid, meanwhile, usually doesn't give a damn unless it's Week 3.

UPDATE: I'm dropping this down to one unit because the Eagles may want to win this game for their coach.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is 16-5 in preseason games.

Mike Tomlin is 4-2 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Andy Reid is 21-31 in preseason games.

Andy Reid is 6-8 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Eagles 17
Steelers +1 (1 Unit) -- Push; $0

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 1.5.
Thursday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

I'm adding this pick as of Thursday morning. Mike Smith doesn't care much about the non-Week 3 preseason games; he's a combined 3-9 in Preseason Weeks 1, 2 and 4. John Harbaugh, meanwhile, is 10-2 in exhibition contests the past three years.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Joh Harbaugh is 11-5 in preseason games.

John Harbaugh is 3-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Mike Smith is 6-10 in preseason games.

Mike Smith 1-3 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Falcons 17
Ravens +1.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: Lions by 3.
Friday, 7:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

***

This will be a small wager. Jim Schwartz loves winning preseason games, so this would be a larger bet if the Browns weren't preparing their rookies for regular-season action.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.

Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Pat Shurmur is 1-3 in preseason games.

Jim Schwartz is 10-2 in preseason games.

Jim Schwartz is 2-1 in Preseason Week 1 games.

Preseason Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Browns 16
Lions -3 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2017): 0-1 (-$330)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2017): 0-1 (-$330)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2017): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2017): 1-0 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21 and seasonal, 2017): -$720

2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)

2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$3,790)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$2,360)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$1,055)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,574-2,383-151, 51.9% (+$5,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 817-743-41 (52.3%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 349-314-19 (52.6%)
Career Over-Under: 2,080-2,031-56 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 39-24 (61.9%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 9-6 (2014-16: 23-27)	Bears: 9-7 (2014-16: 17-27)	Bucs: 4-11 (2014-16: 26-22)	49ers: 9-7 (2014-16: 32-15)
Eagles: 12-7 (2014-16: 23-25)	Lions: 6-10 (2014-16: 26-22)	Falcons: 8-10 (2014-16: 29-22)	Cardinals: 9-6 (2014-16: 24-27)
Giants: 11-5 (2014-16: 22-24)	Packers: 6-10 (2014-16: 31-21)	Panthers: 7-10 (2014-16: 26-26)	Rams: 13-4 (2014-16: 24-22)
Redskins: 9-7 (2014-16: 26-23)	Vikings: 8-9 (2014-16: 28-21)	Saints: 6-12 (2014-16: 25-21)	Seahawks: 7-8 (2014-16: 27-26)

Bills: 9-8 (2014-16: 24-21)	Bengals: 7-8 (2014-16: 16-31)	Colts: 8-8 (2014-16: 21-26)	Broncos: 9-6 (2014-16: 24-23)
Dolphins: 4-10 (2014-16: 28-19)	Browns: 5-11 (2014-16: 21-22)	Jaguars: 11-8 (2014-16: 18-28)	Chargers: 5-9 (2014-16: 25-23)
Jets: 8-6 (2014-16: 24-21)	Ravens: 6-9 (2014-16: 23-23)	Texans: 9-6 (2014-16: 23-26)	Chiefs: 9-8 (2014-16: 29-26)
Patriots: 10-9 (2014-16: 31-23)	Steelers: 10-7 (2014-16: 28-22)	Titans: 7-11 (2014-16: 23-20)	Raiders: 4-10 (2014-16: 23-26)

Divisional: 46-40 (2011-16: 266-272)	2x Game Edge: 23-20 (2011-16: 103-107)	2x Psych Edge: 42-42 (2011-16: 194-165)	2x Vegas Edge: 18-20 (2011-16: 241-255)
2x Trend Edge: 26-33 (2011-15: 181-159)	Double Edge: 19-14 (2011-15: 77-75)	Triple Edge: 2-2 (2011-15: 6-3)	Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 1, 2012

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