NFL Picks Against the Spread: Preseason Week 3, 2016



NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 7-3 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2016): 7-3 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.




Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Line: Seahawks by 5.

Thursday, 10:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

***

This seems like a high spread for a preseason game, especially when considering that Seattle backup Trevone Boykin is just as likely to throw it to the other team as he is to one of his own receivers. Boykin definitely has the raw talent, but the mental part of his game isn't there yet. Dak Prescott, on the other hand, has both the talent and the awareness to play quarterback in the NFL right now. I like getting five points with Prescott, but I wish Jason Garrett had a better preseason record.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: .
Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Jason Garrett is 9-14 in preseason games.
  • Jason Garrett is 3-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Pete Carroll is 16-10 in preseason games (2-12 last 3 years).
  • Pete Carroll is 4-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Seahawks 26
    Cowboys +5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330








    Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)
    Line: Saints by 1.

    Friday, 8:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    Landry Jones has destroyed Mike Tomlin's once-pristine preseason record. Tomlin was 19-6 in exhibition contests once upon a time. And then Jones came along, and now Tomlin has 13 of his previous 15 preseason games. I will continue to bet against Jones, and I like getting the Saints at a near-pick em, considering that Sean Payton is 8-2 in Week 3 preseason contests.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Mike Tomlin is 21-19 in preseason games (2-13 last 3 years).
  • Mike Tomlin is 5-4 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Sean Payton is 21-23 in preseason games.
  • Sean Payton is 8-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 24, Steelers 17
    Saints -1 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220







    Detroit Lions (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
    Line: Ravens by 3.

    Saturday, 7:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I definitely like Ryan Mallett and Josh Johnson over Dan Orlovsky and Jake Rudock, and John Harbaugh's preseason record speaks for itself. However, I'm not crazy about laying three points (especially with juice), so this is going to just be a one-unit play.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Ravens.
  • Jim Caldwell is 9-13 in preseason games.
  • Jim Cadlwell is 2-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • John Harbaugh is 22-12 in preseason games.
  • John Harbaugh is 5-3 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Lions 17
    Ravens -3 -125 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100







    New York Giants (0-2) at New York Jets (1-1)
    Line: Giants by 1.

    Saturday, 7:30 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money. Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    The one caveat, which I've added to my preseason picking process, is to factor in backup quarterbacks. Some reserve signal-callers are much better than others in the preseason, with mobile quarterbacks having a big advantage because they seldom have to diagnose defenses, and their mobility is a big strength versus opposing scrubs. It's why Pat White is one of the greatest preseason quarterbacks of all time.

    ***

    I think Ryan Nassib, like Landry Jones, is just one of those quarterbacks you bet against without even thinking about it. Nassib is absolutely terrible, and it doesn't help that Ben McAdoo's team has looked unprepared in two contests. Perhaps McAdoo will try his hardest to get everything straightened out, but even if his team has the lead at half, Nassib could just lose the game at intermission.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Todd Bowles is 4-2 in preseason games.
  • Todd Bowles is 1-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Ben McAdoo is 0-2 in preseason games.
  • Ben McAdoo is 0-0 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Giants 16
    Jets +1 (1 Unit) -- Push; $0







    San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (2-0)
    Line: Vikings by 4.

    Sunday, 1:00 ET

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Outcomes of preseason games rarely have anything to do with the talent on the respective teams, since the majority of the games are played by second-, third- and fourth-stringers.

    Some coaches care about winning preseason games, while others do not. Thus, betting on coaches with great preseason records is an easy way to make money.

    Here are recent NFL Betting Trends: Preseason Records for every coach in the NFL.

    ***

    Mike Zimmer is now 10-1 in the preseason! I hate laying more than a field goal in the exhibition, but I can't pass up a chance to wager on Zimmer. I like the Vikings' backup quarterbacks better than San Diego's anyhow.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No psychological edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: .
    Vegas trends will be posted in the regular season.
  • Percentage of money on Team: X% (Y bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Mike McCoy is 6-8 in preseason games.
  • Mike McCoy is 1-2 in Preseason Week 3 games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 2-0 in preseason games.
  • Mike Zimmer is 10-1 in Preseason Week 3 games.


    Preseason Week 3 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Chargers 16
    Vikings -4 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200





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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-27)
    Bears: 5-5 (2014-16: 17-27)
    Bucs: 3-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    49ers: 5-5 (2014-16: 32-15)
    Eagles: 8-2 (2014-16: 23-25)
    Lions: 4-6 (2014-16: 26-22)
    Falcons: 4-6 (2014-16: 29-22)
    Cardinals: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-27)
    Giants: 7-3 (2014-16: 22-24)
    Packers: 3-7 (2014-16: 31-21)
    Panthers: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-26)
    Rams: 7-3 (2014-16: 24-22)
    Redskins: 5-5 (2014-16: 26-23)
    Vikings: 4-6 (2014-16: 28-21)
    Saints: 4-6 (2014-16: 25-21)
    Seahawks: 3-6 (2014-16: 27-26)
    Bills: 3-7 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Bengals: 3-6 (2014-16: 16-31)
    Colts: 5-5 (2014-16: 21-26)
    Broncos: 4-5 (2014-16: 24-23)
    Dolphins: 0-8 (2014-16: 28-19)
    Browns: 2-8 (2014-16: 21-22)
    Jaguars: 6-4 (2014-16: 18-28)
    Chargers: 4-5 (2014-16: 25-23)
    Jets: 5-4 (2014-16: 24-21)
    Ravens: 4-6 (2014-16: 23-23)
    Texans: 6-4 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Chiefs: 3-7 (2014-16: 29-26)
    Patriots: 4-6 (2014-16: 31-23)
    Steelers: 5-5 (2014-16: 28-22)
    Titans: 2-8 (2014-16: 23-20)
    Raiders: 1-8 (2014-16: 23-26)
    Divisional: 16-21 (2011-16: 266-272)
    2x Game Edge: 9-13 (2011-16: 103-107)
    2x Psych Edge: 27-25 (2011-16: 194-165)
    2x Vegas Edge: 14-11 (2011-16: 241-255)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-20 (2011-15: 181-159)
    Double Edge: 13-10 (2011-15: 77-75)
    Triple Edge: 1-2 (2011-15: 6-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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