Week 13 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 89-84-3 (+$290)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 1, 4:50 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games

Atlanta Falcons (7-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-7)
Line: Chargers by 5.5. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Chargers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Chargers -3.
Sunday, 4:05 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Falcons: OUT: OT Sam Baker, CB Von Hutchins (IR). Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR).

Bill Simmons inspired this feature. A few years ago, Simmons speculated on what Jim Haslett, a lame-duck coach with the Saints, could do to get fired. Rod Marinelli seems to be in the same position. I’m convinced Marinelli could do whatever he wants and he still wouldn’t get axed.

In fact, let’s put it to the test. Here are some things Marinelli could do and the odds that he would keep his job.

100% Job Security – Blow a 17-0 lead and fail to cover as an 8-point underdog. (I’ll still be pissed off about this 20 years from now.)

99.96% Job Security – Debacle the entire front office.

98.75% Job Security – Distract the country, steal the Hope Diamond and hire a 5-year-old to fake his own death.

95.11% Job Security – Order the bum sitting outside of Ford Field to tell Daunte Culpepper that he’s been benched.

80.75% Job Security – Take the team out to see High School Musical 3. If the Lions can’t win games, they might as well sing and dance better than any other squad in the league!

I should have brought this lead up during the Lions-Titans game, but I was too busy talking about Thanksgiving. The sad thing is, Thanksgiving will be over by the time this game starts. That’s upsetting. Only 362 more days until the next one! Groan.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: One of the writers for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution opined that Matt Ryan is the best rookie quarterback of all time. I really can’t argue that. What Ryan is doing this year is amazing. He’s so poised that if you took the name off the back of his jersey, you would think that he’s been around for years.

Ryan has thrown for at least 220 yards in every game since Week 5. During that time span, he has seven touchdowns, just three picks and only one fumble. He has also maintained a YPA of 9.6 or better in four of his past six contests.

Aside from sheer talent, one of the main reasons for Ryan’s early success is the play of his offensive line. Despite the injury to left tackle Sam Baker, Ryan has been sacked only six times since the beginning of October.

As Charger fans can already tell, this doesn’t bode well for their team. San Diego can neither stop the pass (15th in the NFL) or get to the quarterback (23 sacks on the year).

San Diego also happens to be mediocre stopping the run, ranking 17th against it. Michael Turner could also have a decent game.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: While it looks like Ryan will be able to lead the Falcons into the Doggone Playoff, their eventual downfall could be the defense. Atlanta ranks 26th against the run and has major issues at the safety position.

Philip Rivers will have a big game, capitalizing off an expected 100-yard performance from LaDainian Tomlinson. Rivers threw all over the Colts, who rank six spots better (11th) against the pass than the Falcons do (17th).

Atlanta will need to rattle Rivers to contain San Diego’s offense, but I don’t see that happening. Rivers has gone down only 16 times all year. The Falcons have just 21 sacks on the season, despite John Abraham’s impressive total of 12.

RECAP: This is a pretty tough spot for the Falcons. After a big statement win against a divisional rival, they have to travel across the country to play a team desperate for a win.

And speaking of desperate, that’s an understatement. If the Chargers lose this game, they’re pretty much done. They can’t fall to 4-8 and expect to make the playoffs. Everything is on the line here.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

Do or die for the Chargers. Again. At 4-7, they’re still in it. If they can gain one game on Denver by Week 17 and beat the Raiders and Chiefs, they’ll control their destiny. The Falcons just won a statement game, so I don’t know if they’ll be at full strength.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
Hop on the Matt Ryan bandwagon! People are piling on, so space is limited!

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 60% (123,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Smith is 1-0 ATS on the West Coast.

Chargers are 10-5 ATS in November home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -5.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Light wind.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chargers 38, Falcons 27
Chargers -5.5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 48 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Falcons 22, Chargers 16

Denver Broncos (6-5) at New York Jets (8-3)
Line: Jets by 8. Total: 47.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Jets -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Jets -7.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Injuries: Broncos: OUT: QB Patrick Ramsey (IR), RB Michael Pittman (IR), RB Andre Hall (IR), TE Nate Jackson (IR), OT Erik Pears, C Tom Nalen (IR), OLB Boss Bailey (IR). Jets: OUT: RB Jesse Chatman (IR), ILB Brad Kassell (IR).

Thanks to the Fat Man and the Ignorant 53, there are still only two people left in the WalterFootball.com $350 Survivor Pool. I’ll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a picture of the four villains Hiro needs to find, detailed discussion about Episode 10, The Eclipse – Part 1, and very hot pictures of Claire. Happy time!

The Jets are a very good survival pick if you haven’t used them yet. The Titans are also a top choice. If you’ve used both, consider the Bills over the 49ers. Personally, I still have the Titans available, so I’m going with them.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I consider New York a very good survival play because of how well Brett Favre is playing right now. Sure, he struggled early on and threw some stupid interceptions, but ever since Eric Mangini asked him to simmer down, Favre has been extremely efficient. Favre has also benefited from the emergence of tight end Dustin Keller, who looks like a Pro Bowler in the making.

As you can imagine, this doesn’t bode well for the Broncos, who can’t do anything well defensively. Their run defense is anemic (29th in the NFL) and their inability to stop the pass is even worse (30th).

If the Broncos decide to put eight men in the box, Favre will torch their secondary all afternoon. If they concentrate on containing the pass, Thomas Jones will trample their defensive front. Denver is basically screwed here.

DENVER OFFENSE: While the Jets figure to score early and often, you could say the same thing about the Broncos, though they won’t have the benefit of a strong running game; thanks to Kris Jenkins, the Jets are second versus the rush.

However, New York is pretty weak in its secondary. Kerry Collins couldn’t expose this – his receivers dropped five passes in the first half alone – but look at what Matt Cassel and Tyler Thigpen did a few weeks ago. Cassel threw for 400 yards and converted third down after third down. Thigpen compiled 280 yards and two touchdowns.

Darrelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes are very talented, but the Jets lack depth at defensive back (see the Ty Law signing). Jay Cutler should be able to rebound off a horrific performance against the Raiders. He and his receiving corps are too good not to.

RECAP: I think this is a tough spot for the Jets. They’re coming off back-to-back victories as underdogs, knocking off their arch rival and the only unbeaten team left in the NFL. Now, they’re large favorites and being asked to cover a huge number against a Denver squad that was just embarrassed last week.

Everyone is down on the Broncos because of their 31-10 loss to the Raiders, but people quickly forget that Denver pulled its own back-to-back road upsets, defeating the Browns (OK, not that impressive) and the Falcons (extremely impressive).

With a loss, the Broncos fall to .500. They can’t allow that to happen. Mike Shanahan has to be furious after a blowout loss to his arch nemesis, Al Davis. I have a feeling Denver bounces back with a vengeance at the Meadowlands.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

This game means a bit more to Denver, seeing as how the Jets just debacled the undefeated Titans. They could be a bit flat at home. Possible Let-Down Alert.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Everyone loves the Jets in the wake of their blowout win at Tennessee.

Percentage of money on New York: 74% (195,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Loser Coach: Mike Shanahan is 3-6 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Jets are 8-6 ATS as a favorite under Eric Mangini.

Opening Line: Jets -9.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Possible showers, 39 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Jets 27, Broncos 24
Broncos +8 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 47.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Broncos 34, Jets 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) at New England Patriots (7-4)
Line: Patriots by 1. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Patriots -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Patriots -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Steelers.
Injuries: Steelers: OUT: QB Charlie Batch, RB Rashard Mendenhall (IR), G Kendall Simmons (IR), P Daniel Sepulveda (IR), LS Greg Warren (IR). Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), RB Laurence Maroney (IR), OT Ryan O’Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, CB Terrence Wheatley (IR), S Rodney Harrison (IR), S Tank Williams (IR).

The 12th installment of the new Emmitt Smith feature will be up on FRIDAY! The year is 2013. Coming off a Week 1 victory, the Patriots get into trouble for Sypgate II. Roger Goodell orders the team to replace Bill Belichick with Emmitt.

Week 2: Emmitt wins his first game against the Falcons, 11-4, despite major confusion and thanks in part to a Michael Vick arrest. Week 3: Something interesting happens to the Bengals, Emmitt screws up again and a key Patriot is lost for the year. Week 4: The Lions-Patriots contest gets moved to Detroit. Find out why, and discover who the new GM of the Lions is. Week 5: Herm Edwards screws up in the battle of the unbeatens! Week 6: Dennis Green blows a record lead and has to be taken to the mental hospital! In Week 7, Al Davis finds proof that Emmitt and Green conspired to lose on purpose. Week 8: Roger Goodell cancels all games for a mysterious reason. Week 9: A steroids scandal rocks Foxborough! Week 10: Both Emmitt and Anthony Morelli were very busy during an interesting bye week. Week 11: the Patriots get “blowed out” without Emmitt, while Morelli mysteriously avoids a suspension!

Now, in Week 12, the Patriots battle the Jets for first place in the AFC East. Find out what happened on Friday! Each week, I’ll follow the 2013 Patriots from a newspaper reporter’s perspective. Get ready for 2013: Emmitt on the Brink!

The 2008 version of the Patriots doesn’t need Emmitt or Morelli to be successful. Heck, they don’t need a talented secondary, a young linebacking corps or a quarterback who has anything more than your basic G.E.D.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I don’t know what’s more remarkable – the fact that Matt Cassel is the first back-to-back 400-yard passer in four years, or the last guy to do that is Billy freaking Volek.

It’s doubtful Cassel will make it three in a row. The Steelers are ranked first versus the pass because Dick LeBeau’s hectic zone blitz schemes make it ridiculously difficult for opposing signal callers. Pittsburgh has 37 sacks on the year, which doesn’t bode well for Cassel, who has been sacked five times the past two weeks.

The Steelers’ top-ranked rush defense will take the ground game away from New England, but the Patriots do a lot of things that emulate the run, including tons of short and intermediate crossing routes. All Cassel has to do is get the ball into the hands of Randy Moss and Wes Welker; those guys are so talented that they can create first downs on their own.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger has to be feeling pretty good right now. For only the second time this year, he didn’t get sacked a single time. Both occasions have been against the Bengals.

I’m stating the obvious here, but the Patriots are not the Bengals. New England doesn’t have the greatest pass rush in the world, but it will put enough pressure on Roethlisberger to force a few errant throws.

The Patriots will also take the run away from the Steelers. They rank 14th versus the rush, but are coming off a game in which they completely shut down Ronnie Brown.

That said, Big Ben will be able to lead his team on a handful of scoring drives. New England’s secondary is pretty anemic. I don’t see how they’ll be able to stop Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller.

RECAP: I like to learn something new after a bad week. I noticed that I picked against the Steelers thrice in “Look-Ahead Alerts” this season (twice versus the Bengals and once versus the Texans), and on all three occasions, I was wrong.

So, how does that apply here? Well, Pittsburgh failed to cover in the contests after Houston and Cincinnati. It appears as though the Steelers exert too much energy covering the games they’re “not supposed to,” which drains them for the important battles. For the record, Pittsburgh beat Cleveland in a non-cover in Week 2, and lost to the Giants at home.

Can they make it 3-for-3? I don’t see why not. This game is evenly matched and pretty tough to call.

On a side note, I don’t like the way Pittsburgh has played recently. They’re 2-3 against the spread in their previous five games, and should really be 1-4 because the Bengals hung around despite dropping three interceptions. The Steelers barely beat the Chargers, 11-10, and lost to the Colts and Giants. Their only convincing victory since Oct. 19 was a 23-6 win at Washington – another team that is struggling right now.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Pretty much equal action shading toward Pittsburgh.

Percentage of money on New England: 58% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 21-9 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 30 instances.

Ben Roethlisberger is 53-20 as a starter (42-30 ATS).

Ben Roethlisberger is 8-4 ATS as a road dog.

Ben Roethlisberger is 11-6 ATS as an underdog.

Patriots are 40-31 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Opening Line: Patriots -1.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Cloudy, 39 degrees. Light wind.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Patriots 20, Steelers 17
Patriots -1 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 39 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Steelers 33, Patriots 10

Kansas City Chiefs (1-10) at Oakland Raiders (3-8)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Raiders -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Raiders -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Raiders.
Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle (IR), QB Damon Huard (IR), RB Kolby Smith (IR), DE Turk McBride (IR). Raiders: OUT: FB Justin Griffith (IR), WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR), C Jake Grove, S Tyvon Branch (IR).

More quotes to be featured in the upcoming Emmitt Anthology: Volume 2. Here’s a link to the original Emmitt Anthology.

1. “Steve Smith is my guy. He missed the first two games of the season because of suspensions. Obviously he’s back into the saddle.” (Commentary: So, Steve Smith missed two games because of multiple suspensions? I thought it was just one. Ah, who cares!? He�s obviously back into the saddle!)

2. “And tonight it�s goin’ be a special night because both of these teams have solid defenses.” (Commentary: So, it’s going to be a special night because the teams just have solid defenses? How about a better adjective, Emmitt? “Great” would have worked. “Spectacular” as well. Could you imagine saying, “That chick is hot. Her face is solid. Her chest is solid. Her legs are solid. Her *** is solid?”)

3. “This Patriots team is destimated with injuries.” (Commentary: It’s almost as if devastated and estimated had a deformed child.)

What an exciting game. I can’t wait to talk about it. Actually, I’m not being sarcastic. I wish I could watch this AFC West battle. I want to see more of Tyler Thigpen and JaMarcus Russell. Ugh, now all I’ll need to say is “National Football League,” and I’ll sound like Ron Jaworski.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Russell was nearly flawless last week, completing all but one of his 11 pass attempts for 152 yards and a touchdown. Justin Fargas, meanwhile, had Oakland’s first 100-yard rushing performance since Week 2. Umm… I thought this was supposed to be a running team?

It’s amazing what can happen when you play Denver’s defense. Luckily for Oakland, the Chiefs are just as bad. They’re 32nd against the rush and 29th versus the pass. Even more laughable is their meager sack total of six. Six!!!!

Oakland will continuously pound the rock versus Kansas City’s soft defensive front, opening up play-action opportunities for Russell.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs should be able to score as well. Oakland gave Denver problems, but the Broncos can’t really run the ball all that well. Kansas City can definitely do so, now that Larry Johnson’s back.

Excluding a few careless turnovers in an attempted shootout, Tyler Thigpen has played extremely well since both Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard went down with injuries. Nnamdi Asomugha will erase Dwayne Bowe in this contest, but Thigpen still has Tony Gonzalez and an emerging Mark Bradley to work with.

RECAP: Oakland’s victory at Denver was nice, but I can’t trust the team to cover as a favorite just yet. In fact, the Raiders are 0-6 against the spread as a favorite since 2006.

I’m also expecting a great effort out of the Chiefs, who have to feel embarrassed after surrendering a franchise-record 54 points to the Bills.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chiefs will be playing for pride after allowing 54 points to the Bills.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The Raiders just debacled the Broncos, so it’s natural that people are going to bet on them.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 67% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 9 of the last 11 meetings.

History: Road Team has won the last 4 meetings.

Chiefs are 9-4 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Raiders are 10-23 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Raiders are 9-26 ATS at home the previous 35 instances.

Raiders are 0-6 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Opening Line: Raiders -3.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 63 degrees. Light wind.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Raiders 19
Chiefs +3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 41.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Chiefs 20, Raiders 13

Chicago Bears (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Vikings -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Vikings -3.
Sunday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Vikings.
Injuries: Bears: OUT: OT Fred Miller (IR), CB Nathan Vasher, CB Zackary Bowman (IR), S Brandon McGowan (IR). Vikings: OUT: DE Kenechi Udeze (IR), DT Kendrick Allen (IR), ILB E.J. Henderson, CB Charles Gordon (IR), S Madieu Williams, S Michael Boulware (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE Jared Allen.

It’s time for the Bo-Bo Fantasy Update! If you don’t know what this is, check out the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Ever.

Bo-Bo wins! Thanks to Terrell Owens (29 points), Tony Romo (26), Derrick Ward (15) and Tim Hightower (14), Bo-Bo was able to beat a 9-2 team by the score of 109-65, putting up the second-highest total in the league last weekend. Bo-Bo’s record improves to 3-9.

But I’m sure Bo-Bo doesn’t even realize that he won; he’s way too busy having sex with 37 billion girls at once (including Elle and Claire from Heroes), and buying up property in Heaven, Hell and Limbo.

Many of you are playing your final fantasy game this weekend. Normal leagues have six playoff teams and three rounds. However, Bo-Bo still has two weeks left because that corrupt league features just four playoff squads, in addition to no waivers. Hooray for more Bo-Bo analysis!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: A dilemma Kyle Orton fantasy owners have is whether to start the Bears signal caller. For instance, in one league, I have Orton, Matt Schaub (out), Brett Favre and Sage Rosenchoker on my roster. Favre is overrated in fantasy, and Rosenchoker tends to throw tons of interceptions, so Orton is a realistic possibility.

But not THAT realistic. I know the Bears beat the Rams, 27-3, but Orton didn’t really have to do anything; Matt Forte ran for 139 yards and two touchdowns on just 21 carries. Orton, meanwhile, was a pedestrian 17-of-28 for 132 yards and a score. He didn’t turn the ball over, but he wasn’t even close to spectacular.

Playing the Rams was perfect for the Bears because it allowed them to mask Orton’s injury. Remember, Orton was supposed to be out for at least a month. It’s only been three weeks since he got hurt. I don’t think he’s even close to 100 percent. He’ll need to be because Minnesota’s third-ranked rush defense will put the clamps on Forte.

In the previous matchup between these two squads, Forte was restricted to 56 yards on 20 attempts. Orton bailed the team out by throwing for 283 yards and two scores. I’m just not convinced he can do that.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Chicago also ranks among the NFL’s elite when it comes to shutting down opposing ground attacks, but that didn’t matter in the Week 7, when Peterson trampled the Bears for 121 yards and two scores on just 22 carries.

If Peterson gets going again – and I see no reason for that not happening, save for poor decision-making by Brad Clueless – Gus Frerotte will have an easier time locating his receivers downfield. Frerotte was 25-of-40 for 298 yards and two touchdowns in the aforementioned contest.

Minnesota lost, however, because Frerotte tossed four careless interceptions. There’s always a chance that Frerotte implodes again, so bet the Vikings at your own risk.

RECAP: The home team has dominated this series, so the public (see the Vegas) could be in a bit of trouble once this game is over. The Bears are playing their third consecutive road tilt, so they could be pretty exhausted in this spot.

Most of all, it comes down to Orton. Chicago will need to throw the ball to win this game. I’m just not convinced Orton is healthy enough yet.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This game is for first place. Both teams will bring it.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Action on Minnesota after the public favored Chicago early on.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 68% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.

Third Road Alert: Teams in their third-consecutive road game are 12-15 ATS since 2000 (misleading).

Bears are 18-9 ATS in November since 2001.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 17
Vikings -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 41 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Vikings 34, Bears 14

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Houston Texans (4-7)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 48.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 12): Texans -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 12): Texans -3.
Monday, 8:30 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Texans.
Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: G Vince Manuwai (IR), G Maurice Williams (IR), G Chris Naeole (IR), P Adam Podlesh (IR). Texans: OUT: RB Ahman Green (IR), RB Chris Brown (IR), RB Chris Taylor (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), OLB Zach Diles (IR), CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown, KR Andre Davis.

Before I get to the final game on the slate, here’s the Week 13 NFL Look-Alike Thread, featuring Hassel the Hoff, Jim Brewer and Brett Favre.

I love the Texans for a number of reasons. Let’s get to the matchups first.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Sage Rosenchoker has proven to be a turnover machine – he has nine interceptions and four fumbles to just five touchdowns – but the good news is that Jacksonville’s pathetic defense won’t put up much resistance. The Jaguars can’t get much pressure on the quarterback (22 sacks), which is a major reason why they’re 25th versus the pass. Of course, a hole at cornerback opposite Rashean Mathis doesn’t help matters.

Jacksonville is also 18th versus the rush, as it’s obvious that the team misses Marcus Stroud. Steve Slaton will fly through wide-open running lanes, setting up easy play-action for Rosenchoker. Let’s just hope that he doesn’t throw it to the guys in the other jerseys this time around.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars have been known as a running football team for years, but they haven’t had much success on the ground this year, thanks to multiple injuries to the interior of their offensive front.

The Texans are 23rd versus the rush this year, but that didn’t matter when these teams clashed in Week 4. In that contest, Montell Owens led Jacksonville with 41 rushing yards. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor combined for a meager 57 yards on 17 carries.

Jacksonville’s lacking running game has caused David Garrard to struggle against the stronger defensive backfields in the league. The Texans definitely don’t have that. Despite getting nothing from Jones-Drew and Taylor, Garrard was 23-of-32 for 236 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between these squads.

RECAP: As mentioned, I love the Texans in this spot for a number of reasons:

1) HUGE GAME: Remember the last time Houston hosted a Monday night game? Probably not – it was in 1994 when the Giants beat the Oilers.

Cleveland and Buffalo recently hosted Monday night tilts for the first time in a long while. Both squads covered by double digits.

The city of Houston and the entire Texans team will be amped up for this contest.

2) FADING JACKSONVILLE: The Jaguars have covered one game since Oct. 12. They’re 1-4 straight up in that span, losing to the Browns and Bengals. Their sole victory was at Detroit. Apparently, beating the Lions isn’t difficult to do . I guess I didn’t get the memo last week.

Overall, Jacksonville is 3-8 against the spread this season. The team has been vastly overrated all year by the public. And speaking of the public…

3) GO VEGAS! Vegas has lost tons of money the past three weeks, as lop-sided-bet teams have been covering very easily. I expect that to change after Black Friday.

The public is all over the Jaguars for some reason. As of Wednesday evening, 80 percent of the money is on the visitor. I’m not sure I understand why. Haven’t casual bettors learned anything from their mistakes?

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

The first Monday night game in Houston since the Oilers lost to the Gianrs in 1994. Both the city and the team are going to be amped up for this game.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
Weird… After backing the Jaguars all week, the public now likes Houston.

Percentage of money on Houston: 63% (164,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Texans have won 3 of the last 5 meetings (4-1 ATS).

Winning Coach: Jack Del Rio is 11-6 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Jaguars are 12-4 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Texans are 10-21 ATS after a win (4-5 since 2007).

Opening Line: Texans -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

Week 13 NFL Pick: Texans 34, Jaguars 17
Texans -3 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 48.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Texans 30, Vikings 17

Week 13 NFL Picks – Early Games
Titans at Lions, Seahawks at Cowboys, Cardinals at Eagles, Dolphins at Rams, Ravens at Bengals, 49ers at Bills, Saints at Buccaneers, Giants at Redskins, Colts at Browns, Panthers at Packers

Printable version of Week 13 NFL Picks (MS Word)

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Jets -2, Ravens -1 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440

Live Dog: Saints +170 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Panthers +145 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$145

Live Dog: Chiefs +145 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$145

Pyschology Parlay: 49ers +6.5, Saints +4, Packers -3, Chargers -5, Broncos +7.5, Texans -3 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Dallas +475 (1 Unit)

Odds to Win Super Bowl XLIII: Indianapolis +1050 (1 Unit)

NY Giants 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Pittsburgh 9 Wins: Over +115 (3 Units)

Chicago 8 Wins: Under -170 (3 Units)

Kansas City 6 Wins: Under -110 (4 Units)

San Diego 10.5 Wins: Under +150 (3 Units)

San Francisco 6.5 Wins: Under -130 (3 Units)

St. Louis 6.5 Wins: Under -115 (3 Units)

Odds to win the 2008-2009 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award: DeSean Jackson 15/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Keith Rivers 8/1 (1 Unit)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Curtis Lofton 14/1 (1 Unit)

How many Rushing Yards will Larry Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Under 1,275 -145 (3 Units)

How many Receiving Yards will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 1,040 -105 (5 Units)

How many Receiving Touchdowns will Calvin Johnson have in the 2008 Season? Over 7 -115 (5 Units) Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop picks will be listed here.

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

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